Tarique Rahman: Future or disaster?

Once more, Bangladesh finds itself in an odd and uneasy situation. One era ended with the July Uprising, but the next has not yet begun.

Politics feels weightless, open and uncertain. The country is waiting — not just for an election, but for direction, for a voice, for someone who can speak to its young, restless generation as well as to its tired older one.

And in moments like these, certain names return again and again. One of those names is Tarique Rahman.

He stayed overseas for years while remaining a constant topic in domestic politics. At one point, everything seemed eclipsed by the controversies surrounding him, and then came the years when his absence eclipsed everything instead. Many anticipated his return once the Awami League government fell and the legal cases against him were cleared. 

But he has not returned. And now, that absence has become part of the story once more.

There are very few charismatic leaders in Bangladesh who still command national attention, if we take an honest look at the current political landscape. Sheikh Hasina remains in exile. Begum Khaleda Zia can no longer govern because of her physical limitations. The youthful leaders who emerged from the uprising are energetic but unreliable. 

Within BNP now coexist Ziaur Rahman's founding generation, Khaleda Zia's consolidation generation, and a digitally awakened youth shaped by repression and the events of 2024. Tarique is the only one who has the natural ability to connect all three.

He also carries a unique family history. His father led the army, fought for liberation, and later served as president. His mother was a formidable leader who served three terms as prime minister. This combination inspires hope, but it also brings immense pressure. In Bangladesh, where family and history are deeply intertwined with politics, such a legacy can be both an asset and a burden.

However, the Bangladesh he left behind is not the Bangladesh he hopes to return to. The nation continues to grapple with a deeper question of identity: Who are we? Do we define ourselves primarily through Islam? Are we Bangalis? Are we Bangali Muslims? Our emotional geography and cultural anxieties are shaped by the reality that we remain the only Muslim-majority country in the world without another Muslim-majority nation within a thousand miles. Any leader who hopes to guide this nation must possess a sensitive and sincere understanding of this tension.

The issue of international legitimacy goes even further. Tarique has long been viewed through the lens of political unrest and corruption allegations by Western capitals and regional actors. 

Whether fair or not, that perception has endured. Another leader whose legitimacy is questioned internationally is not something Bangladesh can afford. Today, diplomacy is more than foreign policy; it is also about trust, stability, and credibility. If Tarique hopes to be seen as a legitimate national figure, he must reshape how the world views him. He needs to demonstrate that his future does not lie in his past.

The most significant obstacle, however, lies within his own political culture. Tarique needs to draw a clear line between political decision-making and his personal circle. For years, critics both inside and outside BNP have argued that some individuals close to him wielded excessive influence. Whether accurate or exaggerated, that perception is what damaged him most. If he aspires to lead the country, that era cannot be repeated. A national leader cannot be seen as dependent on a handful of unelected confidants.

Bangladesh does not need a saviour. What it needs is equilibrium. A leader who can listen, strengthen institutions, reduce polarisation, and calm the chaos. Is Tarique the future, then? He can be — if he adapts, embraces openness, communicates confidently with the world, and shows that he has learned from his mistakes. Could he be disastrous? Yes — if he falls back on his former style, networks, and instincts.

Another change is essential. If Tarique hopes to lead Bangladesh, he cannot act solely as the head of BNP. A national leader must speak to the entire nation — supporters, detractors, and undecided citizens alike. Beyond that, he must reach audiences outside Bangladesh, beyond the party, and outside the echo chambers that surround him if he hopes to build a global reputation. Contemporary leadership is not just about authority within a party; it is about ideas, consistency, and emotional intelligence.

But there is a strong case for him despite all the criticism. Tarique may be the only moderate leader in today's polarised political environment capable of bringing people together. The alternatives are either politically worn out, inexperienced, or fragmented. 

Despite its wounds, BNP remains a national organisation. While the youth lack a formal organisational foundation, their passion is undeniable. Across parties, many prominent politicians seek cohesion. Tarique stands out in this void — not because he is flawless, but because no one else combines recognition, organisational influence, and symbolic power in the way he does.

The past cannot be erased. The era of Hawa Bhaban left its mark. While some accusations reflected genuine errors of judgment, others were exaggerated by political rivals. Yet Bangladesh is entering a new phase that, if guided by transformation and sincerity, may allow for second chances. Exile can soften perceptions. Distance can bring clarity. Opposition can become more humanised. 

Tarique Rahman still holds one of the most significant opportunities to reshape Bangladesh's future — if his time abroad has humbled him, strengthened him, and broadened his perspective.

Bangladesh does not need a savior. What it needs is equilibrium. A leader who can listen, strengthen institutions, reduce polarisation, and calm the chaos. Someone who can earn the trust of both the young and the old. Someone who remains hopeful while recognising that the nation is weary.

Is he the future, then? He can be — if he adapts, embraces openness, communicates confidently with the world, and shows that he has learned from his mistakes.

Could he be disastrous? Yes — if he falls back on his former style, networks, and instincts.

Bangladesh currently stands between these two paths. Tarique Rahman is a bridge between his past self and the leader he could become. For the first time in a long while, he alone is largely responsible for the direction he takes — whether it turns out good, terrible, or ugly.

Zillur Rahman is a journalist and the host of the current affairs talk show 'Tritiyo Matra'. He also serves as the president of the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS). His X handle is @zillur.

This article was originally published on TBS.
Views in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect CGS policy.