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There were a lot of speculations about the China- Taiwan tension regarding the Taiwan election held on 13th January. The international community was champing at the bit to see the outcome of the election, as there was a political party the Kuomintang, or KMT who’s political agenda swayed by China. The politicians of KMT had good relations with Chinese high officials about trade and many more. Though those talks will not stand anywhere as Lai Ching-teof Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP won the election and attained as the president of Taiwan. After getting the result of the election, first Lai Ching-te faced the international media, then he went to the stage to deliver his victory speech to the people of Taiwan. It shows how bold and confident he was with his victory. 

Taiwan recognized themselves as Republic of China (ROC) after Chiang Kai-shek was defeated by the communist party in the civil war and fled to the “this” island. Initially the Republic of China was considered as the government of China and also given a seat in the UN. Soon it changed and the People's Republic of China got the status of the original government of China. However, the USA always supported Taiwan and maintained close ties providing military support and trade. Till now, China did not appreciate the US involvement with Taiwan as they think the USA is intervening in their internal matters. It is only bound to maintain cultural relations. Not only the USA, China criticizes any countries involvement with Taiwan as they think Taiwan is a part of the communist country, it’s the against the “One China Policy”

Regarding the Taiwan election, though Lai Ching-te from the DPP won, however they have to face difficulty forming the legislative, which is called Legislative Yuan. In the previous presidential and parliamentary election in 2016 and 2020 won by Tsai Ing-wen from DPP. In 2016 she got 56.1 percent of the vote and also got majority seats in the parliament, which is 68 seats, with authority of all the major law-making decisions. Tsai Ing-wen again won in 2020 with more than 57 percent of the vote. But in the year 2024 the scenario is different as DPP only won in the presidential election but was incapable of winning majority legislative seats. However, among 113 seats 52 seats were won by Kuomintang, or KMT, which is a seat extra than DPP. On the other hand, Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP) won 8 seats and positioned themselves as “game-changers”. Therefore, it will be formidable for Lai Ching-te to implement all the policies regarding the economy and law making. Here it is significant to mention that both TPP and KMT are eager to form a coalition to get the upper-hand in the legislative decision making and both of the parties have close ties with China. KMT was formed by the people who fled from China after being defeated in the Civil War in 1947 and pursue reunification with China but according to them they are not “pro-China”, same goes for TPP as well. Here we can assume the decision making will be tough when the inauguration of the president will be held in May.

On the other hand, Europe, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, not to forget the USA congratulated Lai Ching-te for the achievement. The EU welcomed Taiwan as they hold up their democracy and also showed concern on the tension developing on Taiwan Strait on the change of status quo. Japan’s de facto ambassador to Taiwan, Kazuyuki Katayama of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association, said “Taiwan’s democracy is strong and vibrant” and Japan will continue to work with Taiwan’s current and next governments and all stakeholders in Taiwan to develop friendly ties between Taiwan and Japan and maintain peace and stability in the region.” These gestures of the world leaders are seen by China as an intervention and the “Red Dragon '' country conveyed a message to stay away from internal matters. China summoned the Philippines ambassador after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr congratulated Taiwan’s new elected president. According to China, it was a silly move by the Philippines and against the One China Policy from their side. To calm down the situation, the Philippines foreign ministry stated that they adhere to the One-China policy and the gesture by the president holds no grievance against China. In the same way China also showed deep dissatisfaction towards Japan’s move to congratulate Taiwan. Though Japan doesn't share diplomatic relations with Taiwan, it has an alliance with the USA, and Taiwan is always backed up by them. This is why, Japanese Foreign Minister stated "The Government of Japan will work toward further deepening cooperation and exchanges between Japan and Taiwan.”

Lastly, China is not taking it lightly if any other countries interfere with the status quo of China-Taiwan. China knew that protests in 2019, protests in Hong Kong was the reason why KMT lost the election of Taiwan in 2020. As for now, it's been a drastic change in Taiwanese people. The KMT got majority seats in the Legislative Yuan. It's stated that reunification with China is not in a few people’s minds but it's higher. So, there is a strong possibility that, coalition of KMT and TPP will give, with the influence of China, a tough time to the DPP in policy making cases. Many analysts predicted that, though China is against Lai Ching-te’s policy, The possibility of war between these two countries is unlikely, as China can’t afford the economic loss caused by it. Other than that, the USA backing up Taiwan will make the brawl complex and nasty. News of visits of many US officials and lawmakers in upcoming weeks, Nauru breaking ties with Taiwan and establishing relations with Beijing added fuel to the fire. Ultimately the status quo will change the dynamics of the region focusing on the inauguration of the president in May. 

Depanjali Roy, Research Associate, Centre of Governance Studies