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The relationship between China and Taiwan is like a toxic relationship in the current century. Even after the separation one does not get over the other. Jokes apart, The People’s Republic of China or mainland China is determined to annex Taiwan and reunite with them. The trembling history takes us to the 1927 civil war in China between nationalist and communist parties.  Even today China is applying every tactic and strategy to influence the voters of Taiwan so they can vote for the pro-China party.

In 1947 the communist party won in the civil war, as the Nationalist party fled to the island of Taiwan and declared themselves as the only government of China, called Republic of China (ROC). At that time the United Nations recognized ROC as the Chinese government as USA pitched for it as well. In 1971, because of the broad influence of People’s Republic of China (PRC) in economy and politics, the UN determined the “One China Policy” and recognized PRC as the government of China. Thus, Taiwan’s influence was diminished. But it does not mean that the USA left Taiwan’s side, but invested in it heavily. As a result, Nancy Pelosi (U.S. House of Representatives) visited Taiwan on August 2, 2022 added fuel to the fire over China’s Taiwan policy. 

The citizens of Taiwan strongly uphold their national identity and are resistant to any interference from China. Despite having ancestral ties to China, the majority of Taiwanese people now identify themselves primarily as Taiwanese. This sentiment is evident in the ongoing Taiwan election campaign, where a substantial number of individuals are supporting the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), known for its anti-China stance. Conversely, some analysis shows that, China is employing sophisticated tactics, including the spread of disinformation, to influence Taiwanese voters. Meta, a major online platform, took action against more than 7,500 accounts across various platforms that were promoting misleading information related to the Taiwan election. Some of these accounts were observed to be active only during peak hours (9 am to 5 pm). Chinese officials have framed the election as a "choice between peace and war," echoing the slogan of the Kuomintang party (KMT), the opposition party in Taiwan that advocates for a pro-China policy. They have urged the people of Taiwan to make the "right choice," underscoring China's determination to assert control over Taiwan at any cost. Apart from that, China is also flaunting soft power by lifting the fish import ban from Taiwan, regarding the election. Though this was a judicious move to show their support to the opposition Kuomintang party (KMT), which opposes the DPP.

The USA holds a gamble in the upcoming election of Taiwan, they have already declared a $345 million military aid package to support them to provide them security against Chinese aggression. The geopolitical location of Taiwan is worthy of attention because of its location in the East China Sea. Because of the protection given by the USA, attacking Taiwan will be laborious land to invade for China, and exacerbating power and influence over Japan and Philippines will be harder as well. This is why the USA has offered security protection through weapons, ships in sea to Taiwan, so China could not cross the sea and enter Taiwan territory. Eventually the USA has sophisticated interest in Taiwan's election as they did not want China to invade and reunite Taiwan and stretch out their power to other countries in the Pacific Ocean.

This election on 13th January will be significant to analyze the geopolitics of this region as it will define the balance of power. As the whole is witnessing China’s forceful authority over South China Sea, and thus they are engaging with assertive policies towards Vietnam and now Taiwan. China is also threatening Taiwan by sending a large number of military aircrafts, 10 aircrafts and 9 ships in Taiwan strait, to build pressure on this island regarding the election. Clearly, hard and soft power has been used to hold the claim over Taiwan by this communist country. Though the USA is on standby with all military support, China has sent clear indications of war if the election result goes against them. The rest of the story will be witnessed after 13th January after the election. 

Depanjali Roy, is a Research Associate at CGS