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The 2021 elections in Niger, which have been accorded the recognition of being the nation's first peaceful transition of power since independence, saw about 8 million Nigeriens casting their votes. Preceding the said elections, a former prime minister's candidacy was declared invalid, Niger's borders were deemed to be insecure and political dialogue within the nation had come to a standstill. Two years down the line, Niger's military junta, after deposing President Bazoum, has announced itself as the protector of Niger's national interests versus terrorism and major Western powers. Following this, the junta did not hesitate to ignore the ultimatum of ECOWAS (an intergovernmental organization consisting of 15 West African states), which on the back of the alarming events, called for President Bazoum to be reinstated by August 6th. The junta's defiant holdout against negotiation attempts by the Africa Union (UN), European Union (EU), and UN has taken place simultaneously along with a pro-Russian movement within the nation, gaining pace.

Following the coup, President Bazoum has chosen to highlight the economic advances Niger has made under his regime and gone public with his concerns about attracting foreign aid. Significantly, foreign aid constitutes about 50 percent of Niger's national budget. Amidst the chaos, economic matters have been of interest to ECOWAS, an organization that has in the past intervened in a number of political standoffs taking place within the continent (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Mali, Gambia). Mirroring the junta's stance, Mali and Burkina Faso, Niger's neighbors, have come forward to support the coup. The movement has seemingly struck a chord with common Nigeriens, many of whom are advocating for the removal of foreign troops from Niger and demanding a more level-playing field for the former French colony. At present, troops from the US, France, and Germany are stationed in Niger, while two air bases (where personnel from EU member states are also accommodated) are operated by the US in the politically volatile nation. For the purpose of maintaining military assistance legitimized by US legislation and fighting terrorism in the region, the Biden administration has not yet announced any finalized strategies in response to the coup. The US has, over the past decade, allocated about half a billion dollars to Niger in military assistance. Pivotal to ongoing negotiations, pro-junta conspirator Brig. Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou (who has been on the radar of the US military for the past three decades) has emerged as an important link between the coup plotters and top-ranking US officials. 

The Nigerien junta is up against frozen assets and closed borders with ECOWAS, in addition, to support from the EU being curbed, where more than $500 million and military support are at stake. In recent times, Mali has become a base of sorts for the Russian Wagner Group, which has as it seems has found a place in Niger's national mood and the junta's nationalistic perspective. President Bazoum, however, has warned of the aforementioned organization occupying an authoritative space at the heart of Africa, the Sahel region, and two of Niger's neighbors. Following the coup, Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, the self-declared head of the new administration, oversaw the abolishment of defense agreements with France, allowing onlookers to speculate that an understanding with the Wagner Group (and Russia) had already been established. As things stand, Nigeriens recognize Russia's moral authority over the West, and their anti-France convictions are being given impetus by internal pro-Russian political movements. The overwhelming view in Niger is that the Wagner Group has effectively combatted terrorism in neighboring Mali and that the organization has maintained stable relations with the Malian junta. Common Nigeriens are wary of a possible military invasion orchestrated by ECOWAS and, given the circumstances, would most likely welcome Russian intervention.

It remains to be seen how (and if) stakeholders interact, communicate, and negotiate a common ground where what is considered 'state sustained' in Niger is universally recognized.          

Mohammad Nihad Nowsher, Research Intern at CGS